YEREVAN - The forthcoming celebrations of the 1700th anniversary of Armenia's conversion to Christianity are turning into a big commercial undertaking, which is seen as a chance to attract substantial investments in its struggling economy.

The authorities prepare to cash in on what the Armenian Apostolic Church hopes will be an extraordinary occasion to enhance the role of religion in public life.

The government-sponsored events marking the Christianity jubilee will get underway on New Year's Eve and continue throughout 2001. They are a key factor behind government forecasts of a major economic upswing next year, when the country's GDP may grow at a record-high rate of eight percent.

Underlying the officials' optimism are expectations of an unprecedented influx of tourists. Official estimates of the number of foreigners visiting Armenia next year vary from 150,000 to 200,000. The assumption is that each of them will spend at least $1000 on the trip, injecting badly needed hard currency into the local economy. The authorities also hope that, aside from a strong boost to the services sector, the year-long celebrations will help the country gain worldwide publicity. President Robert Kocharian's promise to create 40,000 new jobs in the coming months hinges, to a large extent, on the expected tourism boom. A "state commission" headed by Kocharian has already drawn up a timetable of festivities that include religious ceremonies, festivals, theatrical shows and concerts. The celebrations will reach their climax in September with the opening of a new huge cathedral in Yerevan. The presence of Pope John Paul II, tentatively agreed with the Vatican, would bring them under international media spotlight. The Armenian Church hopes that the 1700th anniversary will not only expose Armenia's Christian identity to the outside world but also cement its growing influence with the domestic public. Catholicos Karekin II views it as an opportunity to "return" religion to the day-to-day life of Armenians who forgot many Christian rites and traditions during 70 years of Soviet atheist rule.

But that is not what primarily preoccupies the country's secular authorities who are seeking material benefits for the impoverished population. The deputy chairman of the commission, Khosrov Harutiunian, met last week with leading businessmen to discuss their commercial participation in the jubilee events. Local manufacturers were offered the opportunity to buy the official logo of the celebrations. A brewery in Yerevan showed interest in placing it on its beer labels. The organizers also envisage advertising space in official booklets and travel guides to be circulated abroad. An aide to the Armenian minister of industry and trade has urged export-oriented firms to seize on the opportunity to market their products. The economic significance of the Christianity anniversary is recognized even by the World Bank whose resident representative in Yerevan, Owaise Saadat, told reporters recently: "This is an opportunity for us to project Armenia's image, to tell the people who don't know about Armenia what a potential it has."

The government has managed to obtain $22 million from two Armenian? American charities for upgrading the tourist infrastructure. The grants will be mainly spent on the repair of roads and bridges leading to medieval churches and monasteries. According to the most modest government estimates, the number of visitors will triple next year.

Local travel agencies are more cautious in their predictions but also expect a major rise in tourism. The biggest problem facing them is the lack of decent hotels. "I'm not sure we are prepared to accommodate so many people," said Anahit Papazian of the Levon Travel agency. "First of all, we don't have enough hotel beds. We are struggling to make reservations for our customers due in 2001."

According to Apres Zohrabian, a manager at the Sati Armenia company specializing in sightseeing tours for foreigners, the demand for hotels is three times greater than the supply. He said prices at a handful of Yerevan hotels meeting international standards have shot up by 30 percent as a result. The shortage will be mitigated by the ongoing construction of several new hotels which will be finished next May. This, however, will be only a partial solution to the problem. The authorities plan to accommodate a large part of expected visitors in private apartments available for rent. A list of interested apartment owners is now being stored in a special database.

It also remains to be seen if the current number of regular flights to and from Armenia will be sufficient to handle a greater influx of tourists. The state-run Armenian Airlines is considering leasing more aircraft to be able to meet the demand. In addition, the Austrian Airlines is currently negotiating with Armenian aviation authorities concerning the possibility of starting a direct flight between Vienna and Yerevan.

The overwhelming majority of tourists due to take part in next year's festivities will be Diaspora Armenians from Europe and the United States. Westerners, or non-Armenians, are unlikely to be traveling to Armenia in large numbers. For Levon Travel's Papazian, that means the Armenian tourism industry has a long way to go. "Unfortunately, the influx of tourists to Armenia has a strictly ethnic character. We haven't yet been able to arouse Westerners' interest. Very few of them come to Armenia."